Quote vs actual: close the loop on estimating

The problem

Estimates are built from standards and experience, then never checked against actuals in a structured way. The same underestimated cycle time or material allowance gets copied into the next quote, and margin keeps slipping on work that looks profitable on paper.

What to measure

Quote accuracy per job = actual cost ÷ estimated cost. Across jobs, look for bias: part families or operations that are consistently over 1.0 mean the standard is wrong; scattered misses mean execution variability.

How MarginGuard helps

MarginGuard compares estimated and actual cost per job and category, groups results by part family and customer, and highlights consistent bias so estimating can update standards with evidence.

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How to get started

1. Step 1
   Import closed jobs

   Include estimated and actual cost by category if available.

2. Step 2
   Review bias by part family

   Consistent overruns point at the standard, not the shop floor.

3. Step 3
   Update standards and verify

   Change the estimate, then confirm on the next jobs that variance dropped.

Bias vs noise

Five jobs from one part family all 12% over on labor is bias, so fix the standard. Five jobs scattered from −10% to +15% is noise, so look at execution instead.

Feeding actuals back into the next quote

The loop has four steps. Pull closed jobs for the period. Group quote accuracy by part family and cost category. For any group with consistent bias and meaningful dollars, change the estimating standard (cycle time, setup hours, material allowance, or outside-processing price). Then compare the next jobs in that group against the new standard. Shops that run this loop monthly stop re-quoting the same mistakes, and estimators get evidence instead of opinions.

Reading the example below

Job JB-10421 was quoted at $12,500 with an $8,900 estimate (28.8% margin) and came in at $9,620 (23.0%). Labor accounts for $300 of the $720 overrun and burden another $200, because burden is applied on labor hours. The quote-vs-actual question is whether that labor miss repeats on other jobs for the same part family. If it does, the cycle-time standard is wrong.